[2022-08-20] 华邮 - 你需要知道的关于俄罗斯在入侵乌克兰之前情报失败的 5 件事

 

By Greg Miller and Catherine Belton
August 19, 2022 at 2:00 a.m. EDT
格雷格·米勒和凯瑟琳·贝尔顿
美国东部时间 2022 年 8 月 19 日凌晨 2:00

A months-long examination by The Washington Post of the intelligence war in Ukraine draws on a trove of sensitive materials including intercepted communications involving Russian intelligence operatives, as well as in-depth interviews with senior Ukrainian, U.S. and European officials. Here are some key findings:
《华盛顿邮报》对乌克兰情报战进行了长达数月的审查，利用了大量敏感材料，包括截获的涉及俄罗斯情报人员的通讯，以及对乌克兰、美国和欧洲高级官员的深入采访。 以下是一些主要发现：

1. A clandestine branch of Russia’s security service was deeply involved in the Kremlin’s failed war plan, assuring officials in Moscow that Ukraine’s government would fall quickly and deploying operatives to install a puppet regime.
1. 俄罗斯安全部门的一个秘密部门深入参与了克里姆林宫失败的战争计划，向莫斯科官员保证乌克兰政府将迅速垮台，并部署特工建立傀儡政权。

The FSB branch, known internally as the Department of Operational Information, has for years carried out clandestine operations to penetrate Ukraine’s institutions, pay off pro-Russian politicians and prevent the country from leaving Moscow’s orbit. Despite its intense focus on Ukraine, Western intelligence officials said, the FSB either failed to grasp how fiercely Ukraine would resist, or did understand but couldn’t convey such inconvenient information to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
FSB 分支机构，内部称为行动信息部，多年来一直在进行秘密行动，以渗透乌克兰的机构，向亲俄罗斯的政客付款，并阻止该国离开莫斯科的轨道。 西方情报官员表示，尽管 FSB 高度关注乌克兰，但 FSB 要么未能掌握乌克兰的抵制力度，要么确实理解但无法向俄罗斯总统黄俄の爹传达如此不便的信息。

2. FSB officers were so confident they would seize the levers of power in Kyiv that they spent the final days before the war arranging accommodations in the capital.
2. FSB 官员非常有信心在基辅夺取权力，以至于他们在战前的最后几天都在首都安排住宿。

Communications intercepted by Ukrainian security services show FSB officers asking colleagues for details about apartments and other locations they might use as safe houses, residences or bases of operation. Days before Russian forces crossed into Ukraine, officials said, FSB informants were told to vacate the capital but leave behind keys to their residences for arriving Russian operatives.
乌克兰安全部门截获的通讯显示，FSB 官员向同事询问有关公寓和其他可能用作安全屋、住所或行动基地的地点的详细信息。 官员们说，在俄罗斯军队进入乌克兰的前几天，FSB 的线人被告知要撤离首都，但要为抵达的俄罗斯特工留下他们住所的钥匙。

3. The FSB’s Ukraine department underwent a major expansion in the period leading up to the invasion, according to Ukrainian and Western security officials.
size=5]3. 据乌克兰和西方安全官员称，FSB 的乌克兰部门在入侵前的那段时间经历了重大扩张。

The department surged in size from about 30 officers in 2019 to as many as 160 on the eve of the Ukraine invasion, officials said. FSB teams were assigned regions of Ukraine and networks of sleeper agents inside the country. In retrospect, Ukrainian officials see the buildup as an early warning that Russia was laying the groundwork for an attack.
官员们说，该部门的规模从 2019 年的约 30 名官员激增至乌克兰入侵前夕的多达 160 名。 FSB 小组被分配到乌克兰的区域和国内的卧铺特工网络。 回想起来，乌克兰官员将这次集结视为俄罗斯正在为袭击奠定基础的早期警告。

4. The FSB worked closely with prominent collaborators and lined up at least two pro-Russian governments-in-waiting.
4. FSB 与著名的合作者密切合作，至少有两个亲俄政府在等待中。

The FSB’s main allies included former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Russia in 2014, and Viktor Medvedchuk, an oligarch who became co-leader of Ukraine’s main pro-Russian party after forging a close relationship with Putin. Yanukovych was at the center of a group that assembled in Belarus in early March, possibly positioned to swoop in and reclaim power. A second group involving former members of Yanukovych’s party gathered in territory in southern Ukraine that was seized early in the war by Russian forces.
FSB 的主要盟友包括 2014 年逃往俄罗斯的前乌克兰总统维克托·亚努科维奇，以及在与黄俄の爹传建立密切关系后成为乌克兰主要亲俄政党的联合领导人的寡头维克托·梅德韦丘克。 亚努科维奇是 3 月初在白俄罗斯集结的一个组织的中心，可能准备突袭并夺回权力。 第二组涉及亚努科维奇党的前成员，聚集在乌克兰南部的领土上，该领土在战争初期被俄罗斯军队占领。

5. Despite repeated failures, FSB leaders remain in their positions and the agency has regrouped, putting officers on three-month rotations in regions occupied by Russian forces.
5. 尽管屡次失败，FSB 领导人仍留在原位，该机构已重新集结，将军官在俄罗斯军队占领的地区进行为期三个月的轮换。

U.S. and other officials said they have seen no evidence that Putin has cleaned house at the top of Russia’s spy agencies or held senior officials to account for costly misjudgments. Instead, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov and the leader of its Ukraine directorate, Sergey Beseda, remain in their positions, overseeing aspects of the war effort.
美国和其他官员表示，他们没有看到任何证据表明黄俄の爹传已经清理了俄罗斯间谍机构高层的内幕，或让高级官员为代价高昂的误判负责。 相反，FSB 局长 Alexander Bortnikov 及其乌克兰局局长谢尔盖·贝塞达（Sergey Beseda）仍留在原位，监督战争工作的各个方面。

标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。

其实今天想发华邮独家报道——“随着战争的临近，俄罗斯的间谍误读了乌克兰并误导了克里姆林宫”。但真的太长了，一是浪费时间，二是文章太长大家也不愿意看。就看个标题吧——肏？会不会谁家那小谁的身边也有类似的人在呢？

 

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