[2022-07-25] Wapo - 观点：佩洛西的台湾之行让拜登政府陷入困境

 

Opinion  Pelosi’s Taiwan trip puts the Biden administration in a bind
By Josh Rogin
Columnist
July 23, 2022 at 5:33 p.m. EDT
观点 佩洛西的台湾之行让拜登政府陷入困境
乔什·罗金
专栏作家
2022 年 7 月 23 日下午 5:33 美东时间

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s plans to become the highest-ranking lawmaker ever to visit Taiwan have been long in the making. Now, as she finalizes those plans, the Chinese government is threatening massive retaliation and the Biden administration wants her to delay. Taiwan is caught in the middle. All sides are bracing for a possible crisis that nobody really wants.
众议院议长南希·佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）成为有史以来访问台湾的最高级别立法者的计划已经酝酿已久。 现在，当她敲定这些计划时，中国政府威胁要进行大规模报复，拜登政府希望她推迟。 台湾夹在中间。 各方都在为一场没人真正想要的可能危机做准备。

This delicate situation raises important questions. Is China bluffing or could Pelosi’s visit really spark a confrontation? Are the benefits of Pelosi visiting at this time worth the risk? And foremost: In our democracy, which branch of government has the final say when they disagree on a matter of foreign policy?
这种微妙的情况提出了重要的问题。 中国是在虚张声势，还是佩洛西的访问真的会引发对抗？ 佩洛西此时访问的好处值得冒险吗？ 最重要的是：在我们的民主制度中，当他们在外交政策问题上存在分歧时，哪个政府部门拥有最终决定权？

On Wednesday, when President Biden casually confirmed reporting that Pelosi was planning to visit Taiwan in August (she canceled a planned April trip after testing positive for covid-19), he inadvertently revealed the internal U.S. government conflict over the still-unannounced trip. “The military thinks it’s not a good idea right now,” Biden said, adding that he wasn’t sure “what the status of it is.” His comments have complicated already uncomfortable discussions about the potential visit between Biden’s senior national security officials and Pelosi’s office, several administration officials told me.
周三，当拜登总统偶然证实了佩洛西计划在 8 月访问台湾的报道（她在武汉肺炎检测呈阳性后取消了原定的 4 月旅行）时，他无意中透露了美国政府内部对这次仍未宣布的旅行的冲突。 “军方认为现在这不是一个好主意，”拜登说，并补充说他不确定“这件事目前是否定了”。 几位政府官员告诉我，他的言论使关于拜登高级国家安全官员和佩洛西办公室之间潜在访问的讨论变得更加复杂。

Of course, Pelosi — as the elected leader of a democratic body — has every right to travel to Taiwan, and Beijing has no right to interfere. A visit by her would be a strong sign of support for Taiwan’s democracy, which is being menaced by China. But the Biden team can’t afford to ignore the associated risks. The Chinese Communist Party is planning to grant President Xi Jinping a third term in November and Biden’s officials believe the period until then is especially dicey.
当然，佩洛西——作为一个民主机构的民选领导人——完全有权前往台湾，而北京无权干涉。 她的访问将是对受到中国威胁的台湾民主的强烈支持。 但拜登团队不能忽视相关风险。 中国共产党计划在 11 月授予希望主席第三个任期，拜登的官员认为，在那之前的这段时间尤其危险。

There are risks to postponing as well. If Pelosi does delay the trip now (even though it has yet to be announced), Beijing could conclude that its strong-arm tactics have worked. China can’t be allowed to think it has a veto every time a congressional delegation wants to visit Taiwan.
延期也有风险。 如果佩洛西现在确实推迟了行程（尽管尚未宣布），北京可以得出结论，其强硬策略已经奏效。 不能让中国在每次国会代表团访问台湾时都认为自己拥有否决权。

“I think that it’s important for us to show support for Taiwan,” Pelosi said at her Thursday news conference, though she declined to confirm that she was planning the trip, citing security reasons. “None of us has ever said we’re for independence when it comes to Taiwan. That’s for Taiwan to decide.”
“我认为对我们表示对台湾的支持很重要，”佩洛西在周四的新闻发布会上说，尽管她以安全为由拒绝证实她正在计划这次旅行。 “在台湾问题上，我们没有人说过要独立。 这是由台湾决定的。”

While it is true that some military leaders are concerned about the trip, they are not the only ones. Over the past several weeks, officials including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark A. Milley, Indo-Pacific Command chief Adm. John C. Aquilino, NSC Asia czar Kurt Campbell and others have briefed Pelosi or her staff about the intelligence assessments of the risks and the military planning that would be necessary if she goes.
虽然一些军事领导人确实对这次旅行感到担忧，但他们并不是唯一的。 过去几周，国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文、参谋长联席会议主席马克·A·米利将军、印太司令部司令约翰·C·阿奎利诺、NSC亚洲沙皇库尔特·坎贝尔等官员向佩洛西或她作了简报。 工作人员对风险的情报评估以及她离开时所需的军事计划进行了评估。

Chinese authorities always complain when congressional delegations visit Taiwan. But administration officials tell me that they have particular cause for concern right now. China, they say, is planning a potentially destabilizing response. They don’t know exactly what Beijing will do, but at least one Chinese state-media commentator has suggested that the Chinese air force might send planes to intercept Pelosi, which could spark a showdown.
当国会代表团访问台湾时，中国当局总是抱怨。 但政府官员告诉我，他们现在特别担心。 他们说，中国正计划采取可能破坏稳定的应对措施。 他们不知道北京会做什么，但至少有一位中国官方媒体评论员暗示，中国空军可能会派飞机拦截佩洛西，这可能会引发一场摊牌。

The U.S. military is devising options for protecting Pelosi’s delegation, who — as is normal procedure for congressional delegations to Taiwan — would be flying on a military plane. The measures under consideration include moving aircraft carriers or sending fighter planes for close air support. That, in turn, could be misinterpreted by the Chinese side as an aggressive rather than a defensive measure.
美国军方正在制定保护佩洛西代表团的方案，按照国会代表团赴台湾的正常程序，他们将乘坐军用飞机飞行。 正在考虑的措施包括移动航空母舰或派遣战斗机进行近距离空中支援。 反过来，这可能会被中方误解为侵略性而非防御性措施。

Key U.S. allies in Asia have expressed concerns about a visit that they believe will be viewed provocatively, officials said. That could undermine efforts to increase cooperation with some countries over Taiwan in the region, administration officials said.
官员们说，美国在亚洲的主要盟友对这次访问表示担忧，他们认为这次访问会被视为挑衅。 政府官员表示，这可能会破坏与该地区一些国家在台湾问题上加强合作的努力。

U.S. officials are also concerned that the Chinese government believes (incorrectly) that Biden supports Pelosi’s trip, contradicting the administration’s current drive to ramp down tensions in the bilateral relationship. As the White House knows well, the speaker can and will make her own decisions on travel. But Beijing may (wrongly) see it as an intentional escalation.
美国官员还担心，中国政府（错误地）认为拜登支持佩洛西的访问，这与政府目前缓和双边关系紧张局势的努力相矛盾。 正如白宫所知道的那样，议长可以而且将自己决定旅行。 但北京可能（错误地）将其视为故意升级。

“Who knows, maybe the Chinese back down and there’s nothing there,” said Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “But it’s clear Beijing sees this trip by Pelosi differently and as a much more severe break with past policy than some Americans appreciate.”
“谁知道呢，也许中国人退缩了，什么也不会发生，”美国企业研究所高级研究员扎克库珀说。 “但很明显，北京对佩洛西的这次访问有着不同的看法，它与过去政策的决裂比一些美国人所理解的要严重得多。”

The White House can’t publicly say that it wants Pelosi to delay, because Biden would be attacked for looking soft on Taiwan. The Biden team has showed overall robust support for Taiwan, including arms sales, military training, diplomatic engagement and consistent U.S. naval missions patrolling the Taiwan Strait as recently as this week.
白宫不能公开表示希望佩洛西推迟，因为拜登会因为在台湾问题上显得软弱而受到攻击。 拜登团队对台湾表现出全面的大力支持，包括武器销售、军事训练、外交接触以及最近在台湾海峡巡逻的美国海军任务。

Taiwan also faces risks, because it could end up bearing the brunt of China’s displeasure. But Pelosi might resist delaying her plans, wanting to assert the independence of the legislative branch and avoid accusations that she caved in to China’s bullying.
台湾也面临风险，因为它最终可能首当其冲受到中国的不满。 但佩洛西可能会拒绝推迟她的计划，希望维护立法部门的独立性并避免被指控她屈服于中国的欺凌行为。

The best-case scenario would be for Pelosi and the Biden team to work out a compromise so that America can speak with one voice. For example, if Pelosi does delay, she could send other lawmakers in her place and promise to visit in a few months, to save face and ensure no bad precedent is set.
最好的情况是佩洛西和拜登团队达成妥协，这样美国就可以用一个声音说话。 例如，如果佩洛西确实拖延，她可以派其他立法者代替她，并承诺在几个月内访问，以挽回面子并确保不会树立不良先例。

But if Pelosi goes ahead and visits Taiwan next month, the governments in Washington, Beijing and Taipei will just have to accept it. In democracies, the people and their representatives can visit other democracies whenever they want, without being punished by neighboring dictatorships. That’s a strength, not a weakness, of free societies.
但如果佩洛西下个月继续访问台湾，华盛顿、北京和台北的政府将不得不接受。 在民主国家，人民及其代表可以随时访问其他民主国家，而不会受到邻近独裁政权的惩罚。 这是自由社会的优势，而不是劣势。

标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。

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