[2022-06-20] NYT - 迫在眉睫的威胁 - 技術討論區

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[2022-06-20] NYT - 迫在眉睫的威胁

NEWSLETTER
The Morning
A Looming Threat
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has civilians in Taiwan taking China’s aggression more seriously.
By Ian Prasad Philbrick
June 19, 2022, 7:26 a.m. ET
晨报
迫在眉睫的威胁
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰让台湾平民更加重视中国的侵略。
伊恩·普拉萨德·菲尔布里克
美国东部时间 2022 年 6 月 19 日上午 7:26

Taiwan has spent more than seven decades under the threat of an invasion: China sees the island as a breakaway part of its territory. In the months since Russia invaded Ukraine, Taiwanese citizens have come to view a Chinese incursion as a more serious possibility than ever. My colleague Amy Qin, who’s based in Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, recently reported on how the island is preparing. I called her to learn more.
台湾在入侵威胁下度过了七年多的时间：中国将台湾视为其领土的一个分离部分。自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的几个月里，台湾公民开始将中国的入侵视为比以往任何时候都更严重的可能性。我在台湾首都台北的同事 Amy Qin 最近报道了该岛的准备情况。我打电话给她了解了更多。

Why would an invasion half a world away cause concern for people in Taiwan?
为什么半个地球外的入侵会引起台湾人的关注？

I cannot emphasize enough how baked into the Chinese psyche it is that Taiwan is part of China. Even the most anti-Xi Jinping, anti-Chinese Communist Party, flaming liberal Chinese intellectuals will tell you that Taiwan is part of China. It’s very rare to meet someone who doesn’t believe that. It would be as if you told me that Maryland or Florida wasn’t a part of the U.S. If you look at Chinese foreign policy through the decades, Taiwan has always been its top issue. Xi, China’s leader, has a specific vision for what he thinks a great China means, and Taiwan is part of that.
我必须要强调在中国人眼里台湾就是中国的一部分。即使是最反希望、反中共、煽动自由中国知识分子的人也会告诉你，台湾是中国的一部分。很少遇到不相信的人。就好像你告诉我马里兰州或佛罗里达州不是美国的一部分。如果你看看中国几十年来的外交政策，台湾一直是它的首要问题。中国领导人希望对他认为伟大的中国意味着什么有着明确的愿景，而台湾就是其中的一部分。

People in Taiwan have known that for a long time, but Ukraine woke up people here to the idea that what seemed like a distant threat could actually happen. Taiwan and Ukraine are very different, but there are parallels. You have strongmen leaders who see these territories as key to their nations. You have this vast power imbalance in terms of military and territory. After Russia invaded, it was natural for people here to make that comparison.
台湾人早就知道这一点，但乌克兰让这里的人们意识到，看似遥远的威胁实际上可能发生。台湾和乌克兰有很大不同，但也有相似之处。你有强人领导人，他们认为这些领土是他们国家的关键。你在军事和领土方面存在巨大的权力不平衡。俄罗斯入侵后，这里的人自然会做出这样的比较。

How have residents responded to that heightened sense of threat?
居民如何应对这种增强的威胁感？

A growing number are taking matters into their own hands. Taiwan has a strong civil society, and more and more nongovernmental organizations are holding what are called civil defense workshops. I went to one in Taipei recently in a sleek co-working space. This organization, Kuma Academy, gives classes focused on subjects like first aid and Chinese disinformation. About 40 people of different backgrounds and ages gave up their weekends to listen to lectures on topics like combating misinformation and to learn practical skills like how to use a bandage to stop bleeding. Everyone was listening intently and taking notes on their laptops.
越来越多的人将事情掌握在自己手中。台湾有强大的公民社会，越来越多的非政府组织正在举办所谓的民防研讨会。我最近去了台北一个时尚的联合办公空间。这个名为 Kuma Academy 的组织开设的课程侧重于急救和中国虚假信息等主题。大约 40 名不同背景和年龄的人放弃了他们的周末，去听有关打击错误信息等主题的讲座，并学习如何使用绷带止血等实用技能。每个人都在专心听讲，并在笔记本电脑上做笔记。

How popular are these kinds of preparation activities?
这些准备活动有多受欢迎？

Demand has really gone up. The founder of another civil defense organization, Forward Alliance, told me that it has been doing 15 to 20 classes a month since Russia invaded Ukraine. Classes fill up within two hours of going online. He said his group has trained 1,000 civilians and emergency medical workers. People are taking their kids to learn first aid.
需求真的上升了。另一个民防组织 Forward Alliance 的创始人告诉我，自从俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，它每个月都有 15 到 20 节课。上线后两小时内课程就满了。他说，他的团队已经培训了 1,000 名平民和急救医务人员。人们带着他们的孩子学习急救。

It’s gone beyond first aid, too. Taiwan has really strict gun laws, but interest in classes teaching people how to shoot has also tripled since the war began.
它也超出了急救范围。台湾有非常严格的枪支法律，但自战争开始以来，对教授人们如何射击的课程的兴趣也增加了两倍。

But this is an island of 24 million people, so the people attending these classes are not necessarily a huge percentage of them. That’s why military analysts and former Taiwanese officials think training civilians to get involved in the island’s defense needs to be a top-down government initiative. Right now, it’s just a patchwork of grass-roots NGOs.
但这是一个拥有 2400 万人口的岛屿，所以参加这些课程的人不一定占很大比例。这就是为什么军事分析家和前台湾官员认为训练平民参与台湾的防御需要是自上而下的政府举措。现在，它只是草根非政府组织的拼凑。

You reported about how the government does want to involve civilians in strengthening the island’s defenses. How are its efforts going?
你报道了政府确实希望让平民参与加强岛上的防御。它的努力进展如何？

The government hasn’t said much about how it plans to get civilians more involved. In April, officials did issue a handbook for civilians about what to do if China attacks, and it got instantly panned. One recommendation was to scan a QR code for information if an attack happens. But a lot of people think that one of the first things China is going to do if it attacks is cut off critical infrastructure. People were saying, “There won’t be internet, so how are we going to be scanning QR codes?”
政府并没有过多地说明它计划如何让平民更多地参与进来。 4 月，官员们确实为平民发布了一本关于如果中国发动袭击该怎么办的手册，并立即遭到抨击。一项建议是在发生攻击时扫描二维码以获取信息。但是很多人认为，如果中国发动攻击，首先要做的事情之一就是切断关键基础设施。人们在说，“没有互联网，我们要如何扫描二维码？”

Taiwan’s government is trying to figure out what lessons it can take from Ukraine’s defense. But Ukraine really only started its most impactful military reforms after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. The question is whether Taiwan can make meaningful changes without having to go through a similar event. Taiwan is a democracy, and politicians have electoral considerations. Extending military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular.
台湾政府正试图弄清楚它可以从乌克兰的防御中吸取什么教训。但乌克兰真正是在 2014 年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之后才开始其最具影响力的军事改革。问题是台湾能否在不经历类似事件的情况下做出有意义的改变。台湾是民主国家，政客有选举考虑。例如，扩大征兵范围可能不会很受欢迎。

We’ve seen a strong Ukrainian national identity emerge since Russia invaded Crimea. It’s only grown during the invasion and seems to be helping buoy Ukrainian troops. Has anything similar occurred in Taiwan?
自俄罗斯入侵克里米亚以来，我们已经看到了强烈的乌克兰民族认同感。它只在入侵期间生长，似乎有助于支撑乌克兰军队。台湾有没有类似的事情发生？

There’s a growing sense of a Taiwanese identity that’s defined in opposition to China. It’s apparent especially among young people who were born in Taiwan and don’t identify as being Chinese, even if their parents or grandparents were born there. That’s continuing to harden as China becomes more aggressive.
与中国对立的台湾人的身份认同感越来越强。尤其是在台湾出生且不认为自己是中国人的年轻人中，即使他们的父母或祖父母出生在台湾，这一点尤其明显。随着中国变得更具侵略性，这种情况继续恶化。

标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。

武统台湾后，中华民族的伟大复兴和中国领土完整算是全部实现了！这不就是中国梦吗？！

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