[2022-09-05] 纽约时报 - “中国制造”地位不再？科技公司逐步将供应链转移出中国
![]() In the coming weeks, Apple and Google will unveil their latest generation of smartphones, jockeying to distinguish the new devices from previous models. But one of the most significant changes will go largely unnoticed by consumers: Some of these phones will not be made in China.
未来几周，苹果和谷歌都将推出最新一代智能手机，并奋力展现这些手机跟之前的机型有多么不同。但这些新产品最重要的变化之一应该不会被消费者察觉，那就是其中一些手机不再是中国制造。
A very small portion of Apple’s latest iPhones will be made in India, and part of Google’s newest Pixel phone production will be done in Vietnam, people familiar with their plans said.
知情人士称，小部分苹果最新款iPhone将在印度制造，而谷歌最新款Pixel手机的部分生产将在越南完成。
The shift is a response to growing concerns about the geopolitical tensions and pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions that have involved China in the last few years. China has long been the world’s factory floor for high-tech electronics, unrivaled in its ability to secure legions of high-skilled workers and the production capacity to handle demand for the next hot device.
过去几年，中国地缘政治紧张局势和疫情导致的供应链中断引发了日益增长的担忧，这种转变正是其后果。中国长期以来一直是全球高科技电子产品的制造国，提供大量高技能工人的能力和满足新一代抢手设备需求的产能无与伦比。
But American companies are seeing more risk there — a perspective forged during the Trump-era trade war, with its tit-for-tat tariffs, and cemented by China’s saber-rattling after Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last month. They fear that basing a supply chain largely in China may thrust them into the middle of its escalating conflict with the United States over Taiwan.
但美国企业在中国看到了越来越多的风险——这是在特朗普时代贸易战针锋相对的关税战中形成的观点，而后又被众议院议长佩洛西上个月访台后中国剑拔弩张的姿态所强化。这些企业担心，如果把供应链全设在中国，可能会导致他们被卷入中美在台湾问题上不断升级的冲突之中。
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China is still, by far, the most dominant consumer electronics manufacturer. But it’s not just smartphone production that is moving out the country. Apple is producing iPads in northern Vietnam. Microsoft has shipped Xbox game consoles this year from Ho Chi Minh City. Amazon has been making Fire TV devices in Chennai, India. Several years ago, all of these products were made in China.
目前，中国仍是全球最主要的消费电子产品制造国。但正向海外转移的生产链不仅限于智能手机。苹果正在越南北部生产iPad。微软的Xbox游戏机今年开始从胡志明市发货。亚马逊已在印度金奈生产Fire TV设备。几年前，所有这些产品都还是中国制造。
On Wednesday, China announced that factory activity contracted for a second straight month in August, according to the country’s closely watched survey of purchasing managers.
周三，根据中国一项备受关注的采购经理调查，中国宣布其工厂活动在8月出现了连续第二个月的收缩。
“The empire of manufacturing in China is being shaken,” said Lior Susan, founder of Eclipse Venture Capital, which invests in hardware and manufacturing start-ups. “More and more capital is going to pull manufacturing out of China and find an alternative.”
“中国的制造业帝国正在动摇，”投资硬件和制造业初创企业的Eclipse风险资本创始人利奥尔·苏珊表示。“越来越多的资本都会将生产撤出中国，并寻找替代选择。”
The fracturing supply chain is rippling across Asia, causing a spike in industrial land prices in Vietnam, a revival of manufacturing in Malaysia and a surge in demand for low-wage workers in India. For China, it is siphoning away manufacturing activity when the country is reeling from its slowest economic growth in decades.
供应链断裂的影响波及全亚洲，导致越南工业工地价格飙升，马来西亚制造业迎来复苏，而印度对低薪工人的需求激增。对中国而言，这意味着在经济增速放缓至数十年来最低之际，该国的制造业活动正在被夺走。
“Everyone is thinking about moving, even if they’re not acting yet,” said Anna-Katrina Shedletsky, founder of Instrumental, a Bay Area company that remotely monitors assembly lines for electronics companies.
“就算还没有行动起来，所有人也都在考虑撤离了，”Instrumental创始人安娜-卡特里娜·谢德莱茨基说道，这家位于湾区的公司生产远程监控电子企业的装配生产线。
When the first outbreak of Covid-19 shut down factories in China in early 2020, the closures roiled sales plans for many companies, including Apple, which had to cut its quarterly sales forecast because it couldn’t make iPhones.
当中国的工厂在2020年初因为武汉肺炎疫情首次暴发而关闭时，许多企业的销售计划都受到影响，包括因无法生产iPhone而被迫下调季度销售预期的苹果。
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The company’s operations team started to look at alternative manufacturing locations to hedge against future shutdowns in China, said three former employees, who asked not to be identified because they are not permitted to speak about their work at the company.
因为不被允许谈论各自岗位的工作内容，三名要求不具名的前员工透露，苹果公司的运营团队开始寻找替代制造地点，以防未来中国发生封锁。
Vietnam, which Apple had already earmarked for AirPods production in 2020, became a much-discussed option, one of the people said. Since then, Apple has started producing its watch in the country and moved some iPad manufacturing there. In Apple’s most recent list of its top 200 suppliers, 20 use factories in Vietnam. By comparison, 155 of the companies operate factories in China.
其中一人表示，在2020年已被苹果指定生产AirPods的越南成了被广泛讨论的选择。自那以后，苹果就开始在越南生产手表，并将iPad的部分生产转移到了那里。在苹果最近公布的200大供应商中，有20家在使用越南工厂。相较之下，在中国设厂的有155家。
Apple plans to assemble and package a small fraction of this year’s iPhone 14, the company’s flagship device, in India for the first time. While most of the initial and most critical production for that device is happening in China, Apple will move some of its overall iPhone production to India later — mainly as a way to assess the ability for future manufacturing there, two people familiar with the plans said.
苹果计划将今年推出的旗舰产品iPhone 14的一小部分首次放在印度组装和包装。虽然这款手机的绝大部分初始生产和最关键的制造环节都在中国进行，但苹果随后会将iPhone整体制造的一部分转移到印度——两名知情人称，此举主要是为了评估印度未来的制造能力。
Even as Apple pushed ahead with plans, the company was careful not to antagonize China’s ruling Communist Party since the vast majority of its products are still made there. As China carried out military drills around Taiwan during Ms. Pelosi’s visit, Apple reminded its Taiwanese suppliers to label components destined for China as made in “Chinese Taipei” or “Taiwan, China,” according to a report in Japan’s Nikkei newspaper.
即便已在推进这些计划，但苹果还是小心翼翼不愿激怒中共，毕竟其绝大多数产品仍在那里生产。据日本报纸《日本经济新闻》报道，佩洛西访问期间中国在台湾附近举行军事演习之际，苹果提醒其台湾供应商将发往中国的零部件标注为“中国台北”或“中国台湾”制造。
Apple, Microsoft and Amazon declined to comment.
苹果、微软和亚马逊都拒绝置评。
So far, the biggest beneficiary of wariness over China has been Vietnam.
目前，这些企业对中国的谨慎态度的最大受益者是越南。
Foxconn, Apple’s largest contract manufacturer, recently signed a $300 million deal to expand in northern Vietnam with a new factory that will generate 30,000 jobs, according to state media. The latest spending was in addition to $1.5 billion that the Vietnamese government had said Foxconn had already invested in the country.
据官媒报道，苹果最大的代工制造商富士康最近签署了价值3亿美元（约合20亿人民币）的协议，将在越南北部扩大生产规模，建设一座能创造30000个工作岗位的新工厂。越南政府曾表示富士康已在该国投资了15亿美元，这笔新投资让这个数字再次增加。
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In Bac Giang and Bac Ninh Provinces in northeastern Vietnam, Foxconn and other contract manufacturers operate massive factories in scenic countryside that was once rice fields and farmland, surrounded by temples, banyan trees and ponds. Now, workers from around the country descend to these facilities in search of jobs.
在越南东北部的北江省和北宁省，风光秀丽的乡村曾经遍布稻田和农庄，有寺庙、榕树和池塘环绕，而今坐落着富士康和其他代工制造商的大型工厂。现在，来自全国各地的工人都赶来这里寻找工作。
A billboard outside a Foxconn factory in Bac Ninh advertised that the company is looking to hire 5,000 workers “urgently” with an offer of roughly $300 in monthly pay for an entry-level position. It is less than half the monthly pay — 4,500 yuan, or about $650 — that Foxconn is offering new hires at its assembly lines in Shenzhen in southeastern China.
北宁一家富士康工厂外的广告牌写道，该公司正在“紧急”招聘5000名工人，初级职位的月薪在300美元左右。这还不及富士康给中国深圳的装配线新员工开出的月薪——4500元人民币，约合650美元——的一半。
The pay disparity underscores another reason that companies are looking for new manufacturing options. Over the past decade, manufacturing workers in China have tripled their annual income to more than $9,300, according to the country’s Bureau of Statistics.
薪酬差距凸显了企业寻找制造新址的另一大原因。据中国国家统计局称，在过去十年，中国制造业工人的年收入增加了两倍，已超过9300美元。
Foxconn declined to comment for this article.
富士康拒绝就本文置评。
Tariffs also added to manufacturing costs in China. In 2019, President Donald J. Trump levied a 15 percent tariff on tech products such as smart speakers, smartwatches and wireless headphones.
关税也导致中国制造成本上涨。2019年，特朗普总统对智能音箱、手表、无线耳机等科技产品加征了15%的关税。
As the tariff battle intensified, Google looked at alternatives to China. This year, Google plans to move manufacturing from Foxconn facilities in southern China to Vietnam, where it will begin assembling its latest model, the Pixel 7, two people with knowledge of the plans said.
随着关税战愈演愈烈，谷歌开始寻找中国之外的替代选择。两名知情人表示，谷歌今年计划将生产业务从中国南方的富士康工厂转移到越南，在那里开始组装最新款的Pixel 7手机。
The company expects Vietnam to provide as much as half of next year’s high-end Pixel phones, the people said.
知情人称，谷歌预计，到明年越南能提供多达一半高端款Pixel手机的制造产能。
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But Google’s planning for next year’s phones demonstrates how hard it will be for companies to move from China completely. Google is exploring a foldable phone for 2023, but making a device like that, using newer screen and hinge technology, would probably require production to be close to key suppliers in China, these people said.
但谷歌对明年手机的计划表明，公司要完全脱离中国是多么困难。这些知情人士说，谷歌正在研究将在2023年发布的可折叠手机，但制造这样使用更新屏幕和转轴铰链技术的设备可能需要靠近中国的主要供应商进行生产。
Google declined to comment.
谷歌拒绝置评。
Over two decades, the tech industry has established an expansive collection of suppliers that make the cords, buttons and machines critical to assembling smartphones and computers. The concentration of suppliers reduces shipment costs and makes it easier to fix faulty parts.
二十多年来，科技行业已经建立了广泛的供应商库，这些供应商制造的电线、按钮和机器在组装智能手机和电脑时至关重要。供应商的集中降低了运输成本，并且更易于修复故障部件。
“We have a long way to go to have the whole supply chain diversified outside of China,” said Mehdi Hosseini, a financial analyst at Susquehanna International Group who focuses on the tech supply chain.
海纳国际集团专注于科技供应链的金融分析师迈赫迪·侯赛尼表示：“要让整个供应链在中国以外实现多元化，我们还有很长的路要走。”
So for alternatives to China, proximity matters. Interest from Foxconn and others has caused industrial real estate prices in Vietnam to spike by nearly a third since 2019 to $105 per square meter (about $9.75 per square foot), while the cost of warehouses has risen 20 percent, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a global commercial real estate firm.
因此，在替代中国的方案中，地理邻近性很重要。全球商业地产公司戴德梁行的数据显示，富士康和其他公司的意向导致越南的工业房地产价格自2019年以来飙升近三分之一，达到每平方米约720人民币，而仓库成本上涨了20%。
Five years ago, said Trang Bui, Cushman’s general manager for Vietnam, she showed industrial land to clients once every other month. Now, she travels daily with clients from the United States, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Europe and China to see real estate for factories.
五年前，戴德梁行越南总经理裴庄（音）说，她隔一个月会向客户展示一次工业用地。现在，她每天与来自美国、台湾、韩国、日本、欧洲和中国的客户一起出差，为建工厂参观场地。
“If you come to Vietnam, all you see is energy,” Ms. Bui said. “For an outsider who hasn’t visited the country, they might be a little shocked.”
“如果你来到越南，你满眼看到的都是能量，”裴庄说。“对于一个没有去过这个国家的外来者来说，他们可能会有些震惊。”![]() 标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。
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