[2022-07-26] NYT - 美国官员越来越担心中国可能对台湾采取的行动
![]() The Biden administration is watching for any moves by China to close off the Taiwan Strait, and they would prefer that Nancy Pelosi cancel her planned trip.
拜登政府正在密切关注中国在台湾海峡附近的任何举动，他们希望南希佩洛西取消她的计划行程。
By Edward Wong, David E. Sanger and Amy Qin
July 25, 2022, 7:00 p.m. EDT
作者：Edward Wong、David E. Sanger 和 Amy Qin
2022 年 7 月 25 日，晚上 7:00 美东时间
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WASHINGTON — The Biden administration has grown increasingly anxious this summer about China’s statements and actions regarding Taiwan, with some officials fearing that Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait, through which U.S. naval ships regularly pass.
华盛顿——今年夏天，拜登政府对中国在台湾问题上的声明和行动变得越来越焦虑，一些官员担心中国领导人可能会在未来一年半内试图对这个自治岛屿采取行动——或许通过切断所有或部分进入台湾海峡的通道，美国海军舰艇经常通过该海峡。
The internal worries have sharpened in recent days, as the administration quietly works to try to dissuade House Speaker Nancy Pelosi from going through with a proposed visit to Taiwan next month, U.S. officials say. Ms. Pelosi, Democrat of California, would be the first speaker to visit Taiwan since 1997, and the Chinese government has repeatedly denounced her reported plans and threatened retaliation.
美国官员说，最近几天，随着政府悄悄努力劝阻众议院议长南希·佩洛西 (Nancy Pelosi) 完成下个月访问台湾的提议，内部担忧开始加剧。 加利福尼亚州民主党人佩洛西女士将成为自 1997 年以来第一位访问台湾的议长，中国政府对她被曝的行程计划一再谴责并威胁要进行报复。
U.S. officials see a greater risk of conflict and miscalculation over Ms. Pelosi’s trip as President Xi Jinping of China and other Communist Party leaders prepare in the coming weeks for an important political meeting in which Mr. Xi is expected to extend his rule.
美国官员认为，随着中国国家主席希望和其他共产党领导人在未来几周准备举行一次重要的政治会议，预计希望将在此次会议上延长他的统治，佩洛西女士的访问面临更大的冲突和误判风险。
Chinese officials have strongly asserted this summer that no part of the Taiwan Strait can be considered international waters, contrary to the views of the United States and other nations. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said in June that “China has sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait.”
中国官员今年夏天强烈断言，台湾海峡的任何部分都不能被视为国际水域，这与美国和其他国家的观点相反。 中国外交部发言人6月表示，“中国对台湾海峡拥有主权、主权权利和管辖权。”
American officials do not know whether China plans to enforce that claim. But Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, who is close to President Biden and deals with the administration often on issues involving Taiwan, said “there is a lot of attention being paid” to what lessons China, its military and Mr. Xi might be learning from events in Ukraine.
美国官员不知道中国是否计划执行这一主张。 但与拜登总统关系密切并经常在涉及台湾的问题上与政府打交道的特拉华州参议员克里斯库恩说，“人们非常关注”中国、其军方和希望可能从乌克兰事件中吸取的教训。
“And one school of thought is that the lesson is ‘go early and go strong’ before there is time to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses,” Mr. Coons said in an interview on Sunday. “And we may be heading to an earlier confrontation — more a squeeze than an invasion — than we thought.”
“一种思想流派认为中国吸取的教训是在台湾有时间加强防御之前，‘早干强干’，”库恩斯周日在接受采访时说。 “而且我们可能会比我们想象的更早发生对抗——更多的是压迫而不是入侵。”
Chinese officials are aware that Biden administration officials, also applying lessons learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are trying to shape their weapons sales to Taiwan to turn the democratic island into what some call a “porcupine” — bristling with enough effective armaments and defense systems to deter Chinese leaders from trying to attack it.
中国官员意识到，拜登政府官员也在利用俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的经验教训，试图调整对台武器销售，以将这个民主岛屿变成一些人所说的“豪猪”——拥有足够有效的武器和防御系统 以阻止中国领导人试图攻击它。
U.S. officials say they are not aware of any specific piece of intelligence indicating the Chinese leadership has decided to move soon on Taiwan. But analysts inside and outside the U.S. government are studying to determine what might be the optimal time for China to take bolder actions to undermine Taiwan and the United States.
美国官员表示，他们不知道有任何具体情报表明中国领导层已决定很快对台湾采取行动。 但美国政府内外的分析人士正在研究确定中国采取更大胆行动破坏台湾和美国的最佳时机。
A central question is what top Chinese officials think of the evolving strengths of the Chinese military relative to those of Taiwan, the United States and regional U.S. allies that include Japan and South Korea.
一个核心问题是，中国高级官员如何看待中国军队相对于台湾、美国和包括日本和韩国在内的美国盟友不断发展的实力。
Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week that the Chinese military’s behavior in the Asia-Pacific region was “significantly more and noticeably more aggressive.”
参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利将军上周表示，中国军队在亚太地区的行为“明显更具侵略性”。
Chinese officials have denounced a steady stream of visits by senior U.S. officials to Taiwan, which Beijing sees as being akin to formal diplomatic engagement with the island. Ms. Pelosi had planned to visit in April but postponed after her aides said she had tested positive for the coronavirus.
中国官员谴责美国高级官员源源不断地访问台湾，北京认为这类似于与台湾的正式外交接触。 佩洛西女士原计划在 4 月份访问，但在她的助手说她的武汉肺炎检测呈阳性后推迟了访问。
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“If the United States insists on going ahead, China will take firm and resolute measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the U.S. will be responsible for all of the serious consequences,” Zhao Lijian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, said at a regularly scheduled media briefing on Monday.
中国外交部发言人赵立坚表示：“如果美方执意继续，中方将采取坚决果断的措施维护国家主权和领土完整，由此产生的一切严重后果由美方承担。” 周一定期举行的媒体简报会。
U.S. officials said the planning for Ms. Pelosi’s trip was moving ahead despite the rising furor over it.
美国官员表示，即便愤怒的情绪在不断上升，佩洛西女士之行的计划仍正在推进。
Ms. Pelosi would be likely to fly to Taipei on a U.S. military aircraft, as is typical of such visits. Some analysts looking at Chinese denunciations of the proposed visit say that China could send aircraft to “escort” her plane and prevent it from landing.
佩洛西女士可能会乘坐美国军用飞机飞往台北，这是此类访问的典型做法。 一些分析士通过分析中方的谴责认为，中国可以派飞机“护送”她的飞机并阻止它着陆。
This scenario is a legitimate concern, U.S. officials said, though it is improbable, and any such move would be seen by Washington as a serious escalation. The officials interviewed for this story spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivities over diplomatic matters.
美国官员表示，这种情况是合理的担忧，尽管不太可能发生，任何此类举动都会被华盛顿视为严重升级。 由于对外交事务的敏感性，为这个故事接受采访的官员不愿透露姓名。
Ms. Pelosi said last week that she does not publicly discuss travel plans, but that “it’s important for us to show support for Taiwan.”
佩洛西上周表示，她没有公开讨论旅行计划，但“对我们表示支持台湾很重要”。
During the Trump administration, a cabinet member and a top State Department official became the highest-ranking U.S. administration officials to visit Taiwan in a working capacity since 1979, when Washington severed diplomatic ties with Taipei in order to normalize relations with Beijing. Newt Gingrich was the last House speaker to visit Taiwan, 25 years ago.
在特朗普执政期间，一名内阁成员和一名国务院高级官员成为自 1979 年华盛顿与台北断交以实现与北京关系正常化以来以工作身份访问台湾的最高级别的美国政府官员。 纽特·金里奇是 25 年前最后一位访问台湾的众议院议长。
Asked by reporters about the proposed visit, Mr. Biden said last Wednesday that “the military thinks it’s not a good idea right now.” He also said he planned to speak with Mr. Xi, the Chinese leader, in the next 10 days. The two last spoke by video call in March, when Mr. Biden warned there would be “implications and consequences” if China gave material aid to Russia in its Ukraine offensive.
当被记者问及拟议的访问时，拜登先生上周三表示，“军方认为现在这不是一个好主意。” 他还表示，他计划在未来 10 天内与中国领导人希望会谈。 两人最后一次通过视频通话是在 3 月，当时拜登警告称，如果中国在乌克兰攻势中向俄罗斯提供物质援助，将会产生“影响和后果”。
Mr. Xi and other top Chinese officials and Communist Party elders are preparing for the party’s 20th congress in the fall, and they are expected to hold secret meetings in August in the seaside resort of Beidaihe ahead of the formal conclave. Analysts say Mr. Xi will almost certainly break with norms by seeking to serve a third term as president and extending his tenure as party secretary and chairman of the Central Military Commission.
希望和其他中国高级官员和共产党元老正在为秋季召开的党的二十大做准备，预计他们将在 8 月份在北戴河海滨度假胜地举行秘密会议，以迎接正式的秘密会议。 分析人士说，希望几乎肯定会打破常规，寻求连任第三个国家主席，延长党委书记和中央军委主席的任期。
“The domestic political situation in China right now is extremely tense in the months before the party congress when Xi hopes to be approved for an unprecedented third term,” said Susan L. Shirk, a former senior State Department official and author of “Overreach,” an upcoming book on Chinese politics.
“中国目前的国内政治局势在党代会前几个月极为紧张，希望希望获得史无前例的第三个任期，”国务院前高级官员、即将出版的有关中国政治的书籍《Overreach》作者Susan L. Shirk说。
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“The risk is that the visit by Speaker Pelosi will be perceived, including by Xi himself, as a humiliation of his leadership and that he takes some rash action to show his strength,” she said. “What’s more, in view of his recent misjudgments that have harmed the country and sparked internal controversy — the draconian approach to Covid management, aligning with Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the crackdown on private business — we can’t count on his prudence in his military response to Pelosi’s trip. Better to postpone rather than risk war.”
“风险在于，包括希望本人在内将议长佩洛西的访问被视为对他领导能力的羞辱，他会采取一些轻率的行动来展示自己的实力，”她说。 “更重要的是，鉴于他最近的误判对中国产生了伤害并引发了内部争议——对武汉肺炎管理的严厉态度、与俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争中结盟以及对私营企业的镇压——我们不能指望他对佩洛西之行的军事反应。 与其冒险开战，不如推迟。”
Pentagon and White House officials have been discussing the political environment and potential risks of the trip with Ms. Pelosi’s office. Officials say it is up to her to decide.
五角大楼和白宫官员一直在与佩洛西女士的办公室讨论这次旅行的政治环境和潜在风险。 官员说，这取决于她的决定。
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China in Beijing, said that Beijing would aim for a military response that would be seen as strong, but not so aggressive that it would provoke a larger conflict.
北京中国人民大学国际关系教授时殷弘表示，北京的目标是采取一种被视为强有力的军事反应，但不会过于激进，以免引发更大的冲突。
“I don’t think anyone can predict in any detail what China will do militarily,” Mr. Shi said.
“我认为没有人能详细预测中国将在军事上做什么，”时先生说。
Hu Xijin, former chief editor of Global Times, a nationalistic newspaper published by the Communist Party, wrote on Twitter that Chinese military warplanes might shadow Ms. Pelosi’s plane and cross into Taiwan-controlled airspace over the island. He also said China’s actions would amount to “a shocking military response.”
共产党出版的民族主义报纸《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进在推特上写道，中国军用战机可能会跟随佩洛西的飞机进入台湾控制的台湾领空。 他还表示，中国的行动将构成“令人震惊的军事反应”。
Analysts say China could do something less provocative. It could, for example, send aircraft across the median line down the middle of the strait separating China and Taiwan, as it did in 2020 in response to a visit by Alex Azar, then the U.S. secretary of health and human services.
分析人士说，中国可以做一些不那么挑衅的事情。 例如，它可以派飞机越过分隔中国和台湾的海峡中部的中线，就像它在 2020 年为回应时任美国卫生与公众服务部部长亚历克斯·阿扎尔的访问所做的那样。
Chinese fighter jets have crossed that line and flown into the island’s air defense identification zone with increasing frequency since 2020.
自 2020 年以来，中国战斗机越过这条线，飞入该岛的防空识别区的频率越来越高。
On Monday, Joanne Ou, a spokeswoman for Taiwan’s foreign ministry, said Taipei had not received any “definite” information about Ms. Pelosi’s visit.
周一，台湾外交部发言人欧江安表示，台北没有收到任何有关佩洛西访问的“明确”信息。
Officials and lawmakers from Taiwan’s two main political parties have welcomed any such visit by the speaker.
台湾两个主要政党的官员和立法者对议长的此类访问表示欢迎。
“Speaker Pelosi has many admirers in Taiwan, and her visit would be a strong statement of American support of Taiwan democracy,” said Alexander Huang, the Washington representative of the Kuomintang, the opposition party.
“佩洛西议长在台湾有很多仰慕者，她的访问将是美国支持台湾民主的有力声明，”反对党国民党华盛顿代表亚历山大·黄说。
Many in Taiwan worry that if the trip is canceled, it would give Beijing the impression that its intimidation tactics work.
台湾许多人担心，如果取消行程，会给北京留下恐吓策略奏效的印象。
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In Washington, some Republican lawmakers have publicly urged Ms. Pelosi to go ahead with the trip as taking a stand against China.
在华盛顿，一些共和党议员公开敦促佩洛西女士继续此次访问，以此表明对中国的立场。
Ivan Kanapathy, a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a China director on the National Security Council under Presidents Trump and Biden, said canceling the trip could undermine Washington’s attempts to strengthen Taiwan’s relations with other democracies and efforts to boost its profile in international organizations and venues.
战略与国际研究中心高级助理、特朗普和拜登总统领导下的国家安全委员会中国事务主任伊万·卡纳帕斯（Ivan Kanapathy）表示，取消此次访问可能会破坏华盛顿加强台湾与其他民主国家关系以及在国际组织和场所提升其形象的努力。
“A big part of why China worries about what the U.S. does is because we open up space for others,” Mr. Kanapathy said. “And that’s what China really worries about the most — more legitimacy for the Taiwanese government in the international community.”
“中国之所以担心美国的所作所为，很大一部分原因是我们为其他国家打开了空间，”卡纳帕斯说。 “这才是中国真正最担心的——台湾政府在国际社会中的合法性。”
Some analysts say there are less risky ways to demonstrate support for Taiwan. Washington could send a top military officer, for example, or sign a bilateral trade agreement, which could help the island reduce its economic reliance on China.
一些分析人士说，表明支持台湾的风险较小。 例如，华盛顿可以派遣一名高级军官，或者签署双边贸易协定，这可以帮助该岛减少对中国的经济依赖。
U.S. military officials say a sea-and-air invasion of Taiwan would be difficult for the People’s Liberation Army to pull off today. If China did move earlier than expected against Taiwan, it could do so piecemeal, perhaps by first invoking their recent declaration on the status of the Taiwan Strait and conducting a limited operation to gauge Washington’s reaction. Another theory is that Beijing might try to seize an outer island close to China’s coast.
美国军方官员表示，中国人民解放军目前很难从海上和空中入侵台湾。 如果中国确实比预期更早地对台湾采取行动，它可以采取零碎的行动，也许先援引他们最近关于台湾海峡地位的声明，并进行有限的行动来衡量华盛顿的反应。 另一种说法是，北京可能会试图夺取靠近中国海岸的外岛。
American officials say it is unlikely that the Chinese government has decided what operation, if any, to carry out. But it is a subject being regularly simulated and war-gamed in Washington.
美国官员表示，中国政府不太可能决定开展何种行动（如果有的话）。 但它是华盛顿经常模拟和兵棋推演的主题。
Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, said Friday at the Aspen Security Forum that Taiwan was learning from Ukraine. After years of buying expensive defense systems, he said, Taiwan was paying more attention to “citizen mobilizations” and “information warfare.”
国家安全顾问杰克沙利文周五在阿斯彭安全论坛上表示，台湾正在向乌克兰学习。 他说，在多年购买昂贵的防御系统之后，台湾更加关注“公民动员”和“信息战”。
He also noted that supplying Taiwan would add further stress to American military hardware production.
他还指出，供应台湾将进一步增加美国军事硬件生产的压力。
“There are longer-term questions,” he said, “about ensuring that our defense industrial base, the American defense industrial base, and our allies’ defense industrial base can be put in a position to be able to sustain the kind of security assistance that we are going to need to keep supplying Ukraine as well as Taiwan as well as ourselves.”
“还有一些长期问题，”他说，“关于确保我们的国防工业基础、美国国防工业基础和我们盟国的国防工业基础能够处于能够维持这种安全援助的位置。 我们将需要继续向乌克兰和台湾以及我们自己提供供应。”标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。
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