[2022-07-09] NYT - 安倍晋三离任后影响力依然明显 | 感谢版主捍卫社区的言论自由
![]() NEWS ANALYSIS
Shinzo Abe’s Influence Was Still Evident Long After He Left Office
Japan’s longest-serving prime minister became perhaps the most transformational politician in the country’s post-World War II history.
新闻分析
安倍晋三离任后影响力依然明显
日本在位时间最长的首相可能成为该国二战后历史上最具变革性的政治家。
By David E. Sanger
David E. Sanger was a correspondent for The Times in Tokyo, and then its bureau chief, from 1988 to 1994.
July 8, 2022, 7:40 p.m. ET
大卫·E·桑格
大卫·E·桑格在 1988 年至 1994 年期间担任《泰晤士报》驻东京通讯员，然后担任分社社长。
2022 年 7 月 8 日，晚上 7:40 美东时间
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WASHINGTON — In his record-breaking run as prime minister, Shinzo Abe never achieved his goal of revising Japan’s Constitution to transform his country into what the Japanese call a “normal nation,” able to employ its military to back up its national interests like any other.
华盛顿——在他打破纪录的首相任期中，安倍晋三从未实现修改日本宪法以将他的国家转变为日本所谓的“正常国家”、能够像任何其他国家一样使用军队来支持国家利益的目标 。
Nor did he restore Japan’s technological edge and economic prowess to the fearsome levels of the late 1980s and early 1990s, when Japan was regarded as China is today — as the world’s No. 2 economy that, with organization and cunning and central planning, could soon be No. 1.
他也没有将日本的技术优势和经济实力恢复到 1980 年代末和 1990 年代初的可怕水平，当时日本被视为今天的中国——世界第二大经济体，凭借组织、狡猾和中央计划，很快就会 成为第一。
But his assassination in the city of Nara on Friday was a reminder that he managed, nonetheless, to become perhaps the most transformational politician in Japan’s post-World War II history, even as he spoke in the maddeningly bland terms that Japanese politicians regard as a survival skill.
但他周五在奈良市遭到暗杀提醒人们，尽管如此，他还是成功地成为了日本二战后历史上最具变革性的政治家，尽管他用日本政客认为的平淡无奇的措辞说话。
After failing to resolve longstanding disputes with Russia and China, he edged the country closer to the United States and most of its Pacific allies (except South Korea, where old animosities ruled).
在未能解决与俄罗斯和中国的长期争端后，他使该国更接近美国及其大多数太平洋盟国（除了韩国，旧敌意依然横行该国）。
He created Japan’s first national security council and reinterpreted — almost by fiat — the constitutional restrictions he could not rewrite, so that for the first time Japan was committed to the “collective defense” of its allies. He spent more on defense than most Japanese politicians thought wise.
他创建了日本第一个国家安全委员会，并几乎通过法令重新解释了他无法改写的宪法限制，因此日本首次致力于其盟友的“集体防御”。 他在国防上的花费比大多数日本政客认为的明智。
“We didn’t know what we were going to get when Abe came to office with this hard nationalist reputation,” said Richard Samuels, the director of the Center for International Studies at M.I.T. and the author of books on Japan’s military and intelligence capabilities. “What we got was a pragmatic realist who understood the limits of Japan’s power, and who knew it wasn’t going to be able to balance China’s rise on its own. So he designed a new system.”
麻省理工学院国际研究中心主任理查德塞缪尔斯说：“当安倍以这种强烈的民族主义声誉上任时，我们不知道我们会得到什么。” 以及有关日本军事和情报能力的书籍的作者。 “我们得到的是一位务实的现实主义者，他了解日本实力的局限性，并且知道日本无法独自平衡中国的崛起。 所以他设计了一个新系统。”
Mr. Abe was out of office by the time Russia invaded Ukraine this year. But his influence was still evident as Japan, after 10 weeks of hesitation, declared it would phase out Russian coal and oil imports. Mr. Abe pushed further, suggesting that it was time for Japan to establish some kind of nuclear sharing agreement with the United States — breaking his country’s longtime taboo on even discussing the wisdom of possessing an arsenal of its own.
今年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，安倍已经下台。 但他的影响力仍然很明显，因为日本在犹豫了 10 周后宣布将逐步停止从俄罗斯进口煤炭和石油。 安倍进一步推进，暗示日本是时候与美国建立某种核共享协议了——打破日本长期以来的禁忌，甚至讨论拥有自己的核武库是否明智。
His efforts to loosen the restraints on Japan that date back to its postwar, American-written Constitution reflected a recognition that Japan needed its allies more than ever. But alliances meant that defense commitments went both ways. China loomed larger, North Korea kept lobbing missiles across the Sea of Japan and Mr. Abe believed that he needed to preserve his country’s relationship with Washington, even if that meant delivering a gold-plated golf club to Donald J. Trump at Trump Tower days after he was elected president.
他努力放松对日本的限制，这种限制可以追溯到战后美国制定的宪法，这反映了日本比以往任何时候都更需要盟友的认识。 但联盟意味着国防承诺是双向的。 中国越来越大，朝鲜不断向日本海发射导弹，安倍认为他需要维护本国与华盛顿的关系，即使这意味着在特朗普大厦时代向唐纳德·J·特朗普提供镀金高尔夫球杆
Mr. Abe was not killed for his hard-line views, which at moments triggered street protests and peace rallies in Japan, at least according to initial assessments. Nor was his killing a return to the era of “Government by Assassination,” the title that Hugh Byas, the New York Times bureau chief in Tokyo in the 1930s, gave his memoir of an era of turmoil.
至少根据初步评估，安倍晋三并不是因为他的强硬观点而被杀，他的强硬观点有时会在日本引发街头抗议和和平集会。 他的杀戮也不是回到“暗杀政府”时代，1930 年代《纽约时报》东京分社社长休·比亚斯 (Hugh Byas) 在他的回忆录中给了他一个动荡时代的回忆录。
Mr. Byas recounted the last killing of a current or former Japanese prime minister: Tsuyoshi Inukai was killed in 1932 as part of a plot by Imperial Japanese Navy officers that seemed intended to provoke a war with the United States nine years before Pearl Harbor.
比亚斯先生讲述了日本现任或前任首相的最后一次遇害事件：犬井刚于 1932 年被杀，这是日本帝国海军军官阴谋的一部分，该阴谋似乎意在在珍珠港事件发生前 9 年挑起与美国的战争。
In the postwar era, political assassinations have been rare in Japan: a Socialist leader was murdered in 1960 with a sword, and the mayor of Nagasaki was shot dead in 2007, though that appeared to be over a personal dispute. And the American ambassador to Japan in the 1960s, Edwin O. Reischauer, was stabbed in the thigh by a 19-year-old Japanese man; Mr. Reischauer survived and returned to his post as Harvard’s leading scholar of Japanese politics.
在战后时代，政治暗杀在日本很少见：1960 年一名社会主义领导人被刀杀，长崎市长于 2007 年被枪杀，尽管这似乎是个人纠纷。 1960 年代美国驻日本大使 Edwin O. Reischauer 被一名 19 岁的日本男子刺伤大腿； Reischauer 先生幸免于难，并重新担任哈佛日本政治的主要学者。
Mr. Abe’s death will now set off a race to be the next leader of one of the most powerful factions of the Liberal Democratic Party. And the shock of it, President Biden said on Friday during a visit to the C.I.A., will have “a profound impact on the psyche of the Japanese people.”
安倍晋三的去世现在将引发一场争夺自民党最强大派系之一的下一任领导人的竞赛。 拜登总统周五在访问中央情报局时表示，它的冲击将“对日本人民的心理产生深远影响”。
But it will hardly create a political earthquake. Mr. Abe left office, partly because of poor health, two years ago. And in the pantheon of current world leaders, he could not match the powers of Presidents Xi Jinping of China or Vladimir V. Putin of Russia; Japan’s humbling recession in the 1990s damaged its ranking as a superpower.
但这几乎不会造成政治地震。 两年前，安倍先生离职，部分原因是健康状况不佳。 在当今世界领导人的万神殿中，他的权力无法与中国国家主席希望或俄罗斯总统黄俄の爹相提并论； 日本在 1990 年代的经济衰退损害了它作为超级大国的地位。
But his influence, scholars say, will be lasting. “What Abe did was transform the national security state in Japan,” said Michael J. Green, a former senior official in the George W. Bush administration who dealt with Mr. Abe often. Mr. Green’s book “Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Abe Shinzo” argues that it was Mr. Abe who helped push the West to counter China’s increasingly aggressive actions in Asia.
但学者们说，他的影响将是持久的。 “安倍所做的是改变日本的国家安全状态，”乔治·W·布什政府前高级官员迈克尔·J·格林(Michael J. Green)说，他经常与安倍打交道。 格林先生的著作《优势线：安倍晋三时代日本的大战略》认为，正是安倍晋三推动西方对抗中国在亚洲日益咄咄逼人的行动。
“He was chosen for the prime ministership because of a sense in Japan that they were being humiliated by China at every turn,” Mr. Green said. It was Mr. Abe who pressed for the emergence of the Quad, a strategic security coalition of four nations — Australia, India, Japan and the United States — that Mr. Biden has now embraced.
“他被选为首相一职，是因为日本认为他们每时每刻都在受到中国的羞辱，”格林先生说。 正是安倍先生推动了四国的出现，这是一个由四个国家——澳大利亚、印度、日本和美国——组成的战略安全联盟，拜登现在已经接受了它。
Mr. Abe was, of course, not above crude political tactics to get his way. He believed Japan had apologized enough for its war crimes, and he visited the Yasukuni Shrine, a memorial that honors Japan’s war dead — including war criminals — in 2013.
安倍先生当然不会放弃粗暴的政治策略来为所欲为。 他认为日本已经为其战争罪行道歉，他于 2013 年参观了靖国神社，这是一座纪念日本战争死难者（包括战犯）的纪念碑。
Mr. Abe’s grandfather, who was accused of war crimes before he became prime minister in the late 1950s, is among those commemorated at Yasukuni. Mr. Abe’s father was a conservative foreign minister and the minister of international trade and industry, which ran Japan’s industrial policy.
安倍晋三的祖父在 1950 年代后期成为首相之前被指控犯有战争罪，他是靖国神社纪念的人之一。 安倍的父亲是一位保守的外相，同时也是负责日本产业政策的国际通商产业大臣。
In 2012, as Mr. Abe returned to the prime minister’s office, President Barack Obama’s aides worried he was too hawkish, but over time they warmed to him. Mr. Obama and Mr. Abe traveled to Hiroshima to lay a wreath at the site where the United States dropped the first atomic bomb, a politically risky appearance for both men.
2012 年，当安倍回到首相办公室时，奥巴马总统的助手担心他过于鹰派，但随着时间的推移，他们对他产生了好感。 奥巴马和安倍前往广岛，在美国投下第一颗原子弹的地点敬献花圈，这对两人来说都是有政治风险的表现。
When Mr. Trump was elected, Mr. Abe pivoted. In addition to showing up at Trump Tower with a gold-plated golf club, he traveled to Mar-a-Lago to celebrate the birthday of Melania Trump, the first lady. He sat and tolerated it when Mr. Trump threatened to pull back American troops from Japan because the country ran a trade surplus with the United States. Mr. Abe smiled benignly through it all, as if he were waiting for a storm to pass.
除了带着镀金高尔夫球杆出现在特朗普大厦之外，他还前往海湖庄园庆祝第一夫人梅拉尼娅特朗普的生日。 当特朗普威胁要从日本撤军，因为日本对美国有贸易顺差时，他坐下来容忍了这一点。 安倍先生温和地笑了笑，仿佛在等待暴风雨过去。
Mr. Abe staked his political future on a trade agreement called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. When Mr. Trump rejected it, the prime minister continued to nurture the 2016 agreement, almost ignoring the fact that Washington was missing. Japan ratified it in 2017; the United States never has.
安倍将他的政治前途押在了一项名为《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》的贸易协定上。 当特朗普先生拒绝它时，总理继续培育 2016 年的协议，几乎无视华盛顿失踪的事实。 日本于 2017 年批准； 美国从来没有。
The Japanese leader viewed managing a mercurial American president as just one more part of the job of a lesser but high-tech power, understanding that for all the billions he had added to Japan’s defense budget, he was still highly dependent on Washington.
这位日本领导人认为，管理一位善变的美国总统只是一个较小但高科技大国工作的一部分，他明白尽管他为日本的国防预算增加了数十亿美元，但他仍然高度依赖华盛顿。
“We have no choice,” Mr. Abe told a reporter stopping in at his office at the prime minister’s residence in 2017, acknowledging that Mr. Trump was forever threatening to pull all American troops out of Japan, with little interest in discussing why they were there to begin with.
“我们别无选择，”2017 年，安倍在首相官邸的办公室里对记者说，他承认特朗普一直威胁要从日本撤出所有美国军队，但对讨论他们为什么要撤离日本几乎没有兴趣。 一开始就在那里。
Mr. Abe seemed to know, as Mr. Samuels put it, that “both Japan and the United States are in relative decline” and thus must combine their talents and resources.
正如塞缪尔斯所说，安倍似乎知道“日本和美国都在相对衰落”，因此必须结合他们的才能和资源。
“This is a relationship that must work,” Mr. Abe concluded.
“这是一种必须奏效的关系，”安倍晋三总结道。标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。作为一名政治家，安倍晋三是卓有成效的。从菅义伟到岸田文雄，都能看到安倍的影子。无疑，安倍晋三的政治遗产会在日本发扬光大。
作为一个在文明国家的华语论坛，草榴社区给简中网友们，特别是不会翻墙的简中世界的网友们提供了讨论时事热门话题的一个难得的机会。之所以草榴屹立十几年不到，就是因为大家在这可以畅所欲言。
但所谓没有规矩不成方圆，畅所欲言的同时，保持人性是文明国家的基本准则。因此，作为草榴社区的底层会员，津味杂谈十分支持版主严惩反人类言论。在某热门帖子 /htm_data/2207/7/5168356.html 里，版主对那些反人类言论毫不留情，丝毫没有手软。展现了草榴社区管理层对广大网友的负责，和对自由言论的捍卫。
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为此，作为草榴社区的一员，我也向版主提供该贴其他的一些反人类言论。维护草榴社区，人人有责！
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