[2022-06-28] WaPo - 中国用来刺激经济的“特殊债务”是什么？
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What Is the ‘Special Debt’ China Uses to Spur Its Economy?
Analysis by Bloomberg News | Bloomberg
June 27, 2022 at 9:13 p.m. EDT商业
中国用来刺激经济的“特殊债务”是什么？
彭博新闻分析 | 彭博社
2022 年 6 月 27 日晚上 9:13 美东时间![]() China’s government is cash-strapped with Covid-19, tax breaks and a property downturn pulling down income while spending keeps rising to pay for economic stimulus and containing virus outbreaks. One option Beijing has to fill the gap is to sell special sovereign bonds, a rarely used financing tool it last dusted off in 2020 to help lift the economy without inflating the budget deficit. Before that, they were employed during the Asian financial crisis in the 1990s and to help seed China’s sovereign wealth fund in 2007.中国政府因武汉肺炎、税收减免和房地产低迷拉低收入而手头拮据，同时支出不断增加以支付经济刺激和遏制病毒爆发。 北京必须填补这一缺口的一个选择是出售特别主权债券，这是它在 2020 年上一次推出的一种很少使用的融资工具，旨在帮助提振经济而不增加预算赤字。 在此之前，他们曾在 1990 年代亚洲金融危机期间受雇，并在 2007 年帮助培育中国主权财富基金。1. What are special sovereign bonds?1. 什么是特殊主权债券？Unlike regular government debt, special bonds raise cash for a certain policy or to help solve a particular problem. They are not part of China’s official budget and thus not included in deficit calculations. The State Council, China’s cabinet, can propose the sale of such bonds, which then requires approval only by a standing committee of the National People’s Congress, which generally meets every two months, rather than the full legislative body, which meets only once a year. That means they can be issued in a more flexible way than regular bonds, which have to be planned for in the budget and approved by the annual session of the NPC. 与常规政府债务不同，特殊债券为特定政策或帮助解决特定问题筹集现金。 它们不属于中国官方预算，因此不包括在赤字计算中。 国务院，中国的内阁，可以提议出售此类债券，然后只需要全国人民代表大会常务委员会批准，一般每两个月开会一次，而不是每年只开一次会的全体立法机构批准。 . 这意味着它们可以以比普通债券更灵活的方式发行，而普通债券必须在预算中进行规划并由全国人大年度会议批准。2. Why use this tool now?2. 为什么现在使用这个工具？China has a target for gross domestic product growth of around 5.5% for this year, but with Covid lockdowns and a property slump, economists say the government is nowhere close to achieving that. One way President Xi Jinping is hoping to fuel a faster recovery is by spending trillions of yuan on infrastructure projects. Funding that kind of stimulus through the budget will be challenging though, given the plunge in tax revenues this year. Part of the financing will come from China’s state-owned development banks, like China Development Bank and Agricultural Development Bank of China, which have been given an additional 800 billion yuan ($120 billion) credit line to provide loans for infrastructure investment. Special sovereign bonds could be an additional source, given some were used for that purpose in 2020. Wang Yiming, an adviser to the central bank’s monetary policy committee, highlighted special national bonds as an option. More likely, the notes may be used to bridge the fiscal gap and finance the stimulus measures the government announced in May, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. analysts Betty Wang and Xing Zhaopeng.经济学家表示，中国今年的国内生产总值增长目标为 5.5% 左右，但随着武汉肺炎疫情的封锁和房地产市场的下滑，政府还远未实现这一目标。希望希望推动更快复苏的一种方式是在基础设施项目上投入数万亿元人民币。不过，鉴于今年税收收入大幅下降，通过预算为这种刺激措施提供资金将具有挑战性。部分融资将来自中国国有开发银行，如国家开发银行和中国农业发展银行，它们已获得额外的 8000 亿元人民币（1200 亿美元）信贷额度，用于为基础设施投资提供贷款。特别主权债券可能是一个额外的来源，因为 2020 年有一些用于此目的。央行货币政策委员会顾问王一鸣强调，特别国债是一种选择。澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团有限公司分析师 Betty Wang 和邢兆鹏表示，这些票据更有可能被用来弥补财政缺口并为政府 5 月份宣布的刺激措施提供资金。3. How were these bonds used before?3. 这些债券以前是怎么使用的？Some 1 trillion yuan of notes were sold in 2020, early in the pandemic. Exceptionally that time, the Communist Party’s all-powerful Politburo decided to sell the bonds and the NPC gave the official go-ahead at its full session in May. Some 700 billion yuan from that sale was transferred to local governments to support their Covid control efforts and infrastructure investment, according to a report by the Ministry of Finance. The rest was brought into the central government’s general public budget for subsidizing local spending on the outbreak, it shows. Before that: 在武汉肺炎大流行初期，2020 年卖出了约 1 万亿元人民币的票据。 那个时候的例外情况是，共产党全能的政治局决定出售这些债券，全国人大在 5 月的全体会议上正式批准了这些债券。 根据财政部的一份报告，此次出售中约有 7,000 亿元人民币被转移到地方政府，以支持他们的新冠疫情防控工作和基础设施投资。 其余部分被纳入中央政府一般公共预算，用于补贴地方抗击疫情支出。 在那之前：• In 2007, 1.55 trillion yuan of special government bonds were issued to capitalize China Investment Corp., the sovereign wealth fund. The bond proceeds were used to buy currency reserves from the People’s Bank of China, and those funds then went to CIC. Some of the bonds worth around 950 billion yuan will come due in the second half of this year, Bloomberg-compiled data show.• 2007 年，发行1.55 万亿元特别国债，对主权财富基金中国投资有限责任公司进行资本化。 债券收益用于购买中国人民银行的外汇储备，然后这些资金流向了中投公司。 彭博汇编的数据显示，部分价值约 9500 亿元人民币的债券将于今年下半年到期。• During the Asian financial crisis, China sold 270 billion yuan of special government bonds -- at the time the country’s largest bond issue -- to raise capital for its big state banks and help offset losses from nonperforming assets.• 在亚洲金融危机期间，中国发行了 2,700 亿元人民币的特别政府债券——当时是中国最大的债券发行——为其大型国有银行筹集资金并帮助抵消不良资产造成的损失。4. How might the bonds affect financial markets?4. 债券如何影响金融市场？A surge of bond supply would drive down prices of the securities and push up yields. The issuance in mid-2020 helped to boost the yield on China’s 10-year government bond by more than 20 basis points in about three weeks, to a near six-month high. At the time, liquidity conditions were tight because of a deluge of local government bond supply before the special debt hit the market and the central bank’s cautious approach to monetary easing, in part to avoid fueling asset bubbles. The situation is different now. Interest rate cuts and other central bank easing measures mean the nation’s banks are flush with cash that they can use to soak up any extra bond supply. Also, local governments -- which issue their own special bonds used mainly for infrastructure investment -- have been ordered to sell almost all of this year’s quota of 3.65 trillion yuan of debt by the end of June. That should leave room for the market to absorb new debt issuances in the second half of 2022.债券供应激增将压低证券价格并推高收益率。 2020 年年中的发行帮助中国 10 年期政府债券的收益率在大约三周内上涨了 20 多个基点，达到近六个月的高位。 当时，由于在特别债上市前地方政府债券供应大量涌现，以及央行为避免助长资产泡沫而采取谨慎的货币宽松措施，流动性条件紧张。 现在情况不同了。 降息和其他央行宽松措施意味着该国的银行拥有充足的现金，可以用来吸收任何额外的债券供应。 此外，地方政府——发行自己的主要用于基础设施投资的特别债券——已被责令在6月底之前出售几乎所有今年3.65万亿元的债务额度。 这应该会为市场在 2022 年下半年吸收新发债留下空间。5. How much are we talking? 5. 我们在说多少钱？Jia Kang, a former head of a finance ministry research institute, said the 1 trillion yuan sold in 2020 could serve as a “reference” for policy makers when deciding on how much to issue this year. Others think it might be more. Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Group Ltd., estimated that the Covid outbreaks this year in China likely caused a budget shortfall of 1 trillion to 2 trillion yuan. A sale that size could contribute 1-2 percentage points to gross domestic product growth given the extra financial boost it will give local governments to spend, he estimated, adding the impact on the financial market is expected to be “limited.”财政部前研究所所长贾康表示，2020年发行的1万亿元，可以作为决策者今年决定发行多少的“参考”。 其他人认为可能更多。 麦格理集团有限公司中国经济部负责人拉里胡估计，今年在中国爆发的武汉肺炎疫情可能导致预算短缺 1 万亿元至 2 万亿元人民币。 他估计，考虑到地方政府支出的额外财政刺激，如此规模的销售可能会为国内生产总值增长贡献 1-2 个百分点，并补充说，预计对金融市场的影响将是“有限的”。More stories like this are available on bloomberg
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